欧元反弹，但非农来袭

There was no shock to the market yesterday as the ECB kept rates on hold at 0.25%. The eagerly awaited interest rate decision was somewhat of a subdued event as investors were confident the ECB would leave rates on hold. The action started when Draghi started talking at the press conference with a more hawkish tone than many investors expected. Growth forecasts were higher and there was a lack of commitment to a lower EURO from the ECB President. Short positioned traders soon got stopped out and the move north gained momentum to the 1.36750 level.
昨天市场没有受到冲击，因为欧洲央行将利率维持在2.5%。市场热切期待的决定其实是有点温和的事件，因为交易者相信欧洲央行会维持利率不变。德拉吉在记者招待会上语气比许多投资者预期的更强硬，欧元开始反弹。经济增长预期更高，而且欧洲央行行长并未承诺将降低欧元汇率。交易者很快开始停止空头仓位，欧元上涨趋势获得动力，上涨至1.36750水平位。

If we look at the technicals the uptrend channel is intact and with the market nicely balanced we could see further Euro gains, but we have Nonfarm Payrolls today and the volatility it brings can upset any technical trend. I for one will not partake in a data release where the dollar can have so many different outcomes. Taper or not to taper. Is it bullish for the economy and the currency. Is it a negative as the loss of free money will be determental to the recovery. Does it matter?
如果从技术层面看，上行通道完整，市场非常平衡，我们可以看到欧元继续上涨，但今天有非农报告，它带来的波动可能会扰乱任何技术趋势。我个人认为数据发布时我不会交易，因为美元可能有许多种不同的结果。美联储是削减或者不削减债券购买。美国经济是否变好，货币是否会上涨？债券购买减少是否会损害经济复苏？这些真的没有关系吗？

The ADP figure was better than expected and if we use this as a benchmark then NFP should be also. The dollar rallied on this data and so to play this market from the short side might pay of intially but be quick as the market could reverse very quickly.
ADP数据好于预期，如果我们用这个数据作为基准，那么非农数据也应该是这样。因ADP数据美元上涨，所以市场上的空头交易可能很快付出代价，因为市场很快逆转。