英国通胀报告前夕——英镑走势分析

     The Bank of England is widely expected to hold the bank rate at its record low and maintain its QE programme today. A healthy PMI number today confirms that the UK is on the road to recovery albeit slightly sluggish.  There had been some rumours of the small chance of a rate increase but anything that could possibly rock the housing boat at the moment would be disastrous. I would assume we get very little out of Mr Carney today as we wait for the BOE Inflation report on the 7th. Investors will look towards this report before diving back into sterling.
    The technical’s show a head and shoulders pattern has formed. There looks to be a confirmed break through the 1.5200 level and the downward slopping neckline provides a more reliable signal that the market is moving towards a downtrend. I have first support at 1.5033 and major support at 1.4825. If we breach the first support level there is little technically to hold it up. Let’s see what the inflation report has to say first.

      市场普遍预期英国央行在今天的会议上将会维持利率在历史低点并保持其量化宽松规模不变。英国今天公布的制造业采购经理人指数好于预期，这表明尽管英国经济发展缓慢，但确实走复苏的道路上。有谣传英国央行不大可能会增加利率，但是在这个时刻，任何可能动摇基础的决定都将是灾难性的。因我们要等待英国央行本月7号的通胀报告，我认为我们今天只能从英国央行行长卡尼口中得到极少的消息。 投资者将会等待这份报告结果出来后，再对英镑进行投资。
      技术分析显示头肩顶形态已经形成。英镑肯定会突破1.5200的价位，同时下行的颈线提供更加可靠的迹象——市场正在朝着下降趋势移动。第一支撑位在1.5033，同时主力支撑位在1.4825。如果我们触及第一支撑位，将不会有技术因素支撑它。首先还是让我们等待通胀报告公布吧。