静待非农——黄金走势分析

GOLDLYTICS
     As expected the FED kept rates at 0.25% last night, they also confirmed they will continue with the $85b a month asset purchases. So no talk of tapering! Gold had a $34 trading range from a high of 1339 to low of 1305, eventually settling at 1325. The volatile range can be attributed to several things. There was a better than expected ADP Employment figure posting a 200k change rather than the survey of 180k. (This can reflect well on the NFP figure but it isn’t gospel) A healthy GDP figure showed the US economy is going in the right direction. These figures helped to push gold lower to just above the 1300 support level but then along came 19:00 BST and release of the rate decision and the statement from Bernanke. Gold jumped $27 as the FED statement stated that inflation could become a concern in the future. This market is purely trading on fundamentals and these volatile swings are from speculators only. The Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will provide further fuel for the fire and perhaps will settle the market, however as we have seen this precious metal can move 2% in a flash. I would suggest keeping your powder dry until after the Friday release as if you get caught the wrong side it could be devastating.
    A pennant continuation patter has formed and can indicate a pause in a market direction prior to it resuming the trend. This combined with the 61.80 Fibonacci retracement level being breached could certainly be a healthy indication (from a technical perspective) that this market is in an uptrend.

      昨晚美联储公布利率维持在0.25%，他们也确认，将继续每月购买850亿美元的资产，没有缩减。黄金变动范围为34美元，最高1339，最低1305，最后收于1325。这有几方面原因，ADP就业人数变化为20万，好于预期的18万（这可以反映非农数据，但不是完全确定）。良好的GDP显示，美国经济步入正轨。这些数据拉低金价至1300的支撑位上方，然而在英国夏令时19:00，美联储公布了利率决议，伯南克发表声明。黄金随之跃升27美元，因为美联储表明通胀可能是未来的一个关注点。此时的市场纯粹在基本面进行交易，波动仅仅是由投机者造成的。周五的非农可能会确定市场的方向，黄金可能瞬间波动2%。在周五非农公布之前，我建议各位按兵不动，如果做错了方向，结果将是灾难性的。
      旗形形态已经形成，意味着在趋势恢复前，市场在此停留。61.80的斐波那契回撤水平正在寻求突破，这会确认方向（技术层面），市场可能是上升趋势。