道琼斯分析

       Independence Day fell on Thursday the 4th July 1776 and signalled the birth of a nation and shrugging off of Britain’s colonial shackles.  The next 6 years before the United States was recognised as truly sovereign cost many lives and at a national level and state level $151 million in financial costs. We now sit at a similar impasse as the DOW has managed to shrug off financial chaos and contagion in the markets to rally currently 13% this year. A remarkable move under all the current economic circumstances and mostly down to, if we are all honest, FED bond buying.  Tapering fears have frightened the market as evident in a 6.4% pulls back to 14,550 and many say that a 7-9 % correction would be even healthier. The Nonfarm Payrolls number tomorrow is perhaps the most important one we will have this year. A strong number could mean tapering starts earlier a weaker number means the FED are contracted to keep pumping $85 billion into the US economy.  Whatever the figure is I don’t think it will be as bloody as the American War of Independence. Well at least let’s hope not!

       美国独立日开始于1776年7月4日，标志着美国的诞生和美国摆脱英国殖民主义的枷锁。在美国被世界认可之前的六年时间里，很多人因为真正主权问题而牺牲，并且国家和政府为此花费高达1.51亿美元资金。现在我们看到一个相似的僵局，因为道琼斯已经成功的摆脱了金融市场的混乱和下跌对其的影响，道琼斯今年以来已经上涨13%。如果我们诚实面对，可以看到在美联储的债券购买计划的所有当前经济环境下，大多数商品下跌，道琼斯表现却不同寻常。对债券购买的广泛担忧使得市场害怕，比较明显的是道琼斯下跌6.4%，拉回至14,550，许多人认为7-9 %的修正会更好。明天的非农数据或许是今年以来最重要的数据。强劲的数据意味着量化宽松政策的缩减将会提前，疲软的数据意味着美联储将会继续保持每月850亿美元的债券购买计划以刺激美国经济。不管数据怎样，我们都认为它不会比美国独立战争更加残酷。至少我们希望不是！