黄金价格反弹，美元指数回落

      The United States and the US dollar have been the major market movers this week as Bernanke’s after market comments on Wednesday spiked gold prices and collapsed the dollar. The Dollar Index lost 36% of its year’s gains in 2 trading sessions while the precious metal had a 3.6% move trading $46 higher for the day. The dollar is the main driver behind the gold move and the relationship between the two is referred to as being asymmetrically biased which means that the dollar will have much more influence on the move in gold than gold will have on a move in dollar. The massive dollar outflow only made for a relatively mediocre gold rally. A weaker dollar will make gold cheaper to purchase and in theory should increase the demand for it. The situation we have now and I think the major reason for the soft rally, is that investors are not looking for a safe haven with zero yield anymore. Investors are looking to place cash in riskier assets and any rally which we have had in gold will be soon fade. A spinning top has appeared in the Dollar Index which signifies that the trend has lost momentum and is undergoing a period of indecision. I would suggest a full dollar and gold retracement could be on the cards with gold back to 1200 – 1277 range and Dollar Index creeping back to its year highs but with Bernanke around who knows.

      在周三市场收盘后伯南克发表讲话使黄金价格上涨、美元汇率崩溃后，美国和美元成为本周主要市场驱动力。美元指数跌幅达到今年涨幅的36%，黄金上涨3.6%，46美元。美元是黄金走势的主要驱动力，它们之间的关系是不对称的，这意味着美元对黄金走势的影响比黄金对美元走势的影响要大。大量美元外流只是使黄金小幅上涨。美元贬值会使黄金购买更加便宜，理论上增加黄金的需求。我们现在所知的情况以及我认为黄金上涨疲软的原因在于投资者不再寻求一个零收益的避风港资产。投资者正在寻找风险更高的资产进行投资，黄金价格的任何反弹都会很快消失。美元指数从高点回落，表明上涨趋势已经失去动力，投资者正在考虑期间。我认为美元和黄金很可能反弹，黄金回到1200到1277区间，而美元指数攀升至年度高点，但是由于伯南克在身边，市场到底会怎样发展谁又知道呢。